March Madness is right.

Like most bettors and basketball fans, I have more conflicting interests this month than Winthrop had newly-minted superfans before Selection Sunday (then they found out their Cinderella would need to get by Notre Dame, Oregon, Wisconsin and Florida to make the Final Four). I guess the basketball world was a bit premature on the "Winthrop as the next George Mason" thing.

Still, it puts me in a tough position. I don’t think the Eagles will go far but what happens if I like the value they’re giving me as an underdog? It could happen. In fact, it happens more than I care to admit. I may have Georgetown going to the second round but I really like the points with Texas Tech. You can’t discount Bobby Knight in the Big Dance, but at the expense of my bracket?

I guess that’s why handicapping March Madness is 10 percent intuition and 90 percent indecision.

It’s also why my number one rule during the next three weeks is to avoid, at all costs, looking at my bracket when handicapping games. It sounds simple. But we all know it happens. It’s posted on my cubicle wall, staring me in the face like my dog used to do when we played fetch. Did I mention he was deaf? Anyways, here are five other rules bettors should heed when handicapping March Madness.

1. Road teams

This rule came to me during the conference tournaments and was backed up by Covers Expert Ted Sevransky. He told me teams with good road records are better on neutral courts because they know how to travel, can handle hostile environments, and most importantly, can perform under pressure when the game is on the line.

That notion was backed up when 24 of the 31 conference champions finished with a .500 or better road record during the regular season. Only six of those teams failed to cover the spread in the championship game too, making me wish I had followed my gut, along with Sevransky’s advice.

Now, I know what you’re saying: most of the teams in the tournament have good road records as it is, so why does it matter in the Big Dance?

The answer is co-dependant with what Covers Expert Matt Fargo believes is one of the most important traits a good March Madness bet can have.

“Free throw shooting. So many games are decided in the final minute and usually the better free throw shooting team prevails in that situation,” says Fargo. “Even when games aren't as close and teams need to foul late, having the ability to make those on your side is big.”

2. Injuries

Unless you know a player is out for sure, like Marquette’s Jerel McNeal, then stay away. Nothing hurts more than a guy like Chris Lofton returning from injury and spoiling your play against the Tennessee Volunteers. Trust me, I know.

Like any athlete during playoffs, it’s hard to keep these kids off the floor. They could be walking on one leg like Villanova’s Mike Nardi or Charles Thomas from Arkansas but they'll still sneak onto the court and blow a tire - and your bet.

Then there are the cases like Stanford Cardinal point guard Anthony Goods, who missed six of his final seven games because of a sprained ankle. Goods returned for the Cardinal’s first-round loss to USC in the Pac-10 tournament, playing 37 minutes and scoring 19 points. The numbers look good, but Goods suffered a high ankle sprain, which not the type of injury that heals overnight. More than a month has passed since he suffered the injury so who knows, Goods could be as good as new. But he could also be a ticking time bomb.

Stanford is only one example of a team fighting injury. Plenty of other teams are nursing injuries. Check it out.

4. Travel

George Mason’s run to the Final Four wasn’t a complete fluke last year. The Patriots had a ton of fan support, not just from people cheering on Cinderella, but because the site of those games (Washington D.C.) was close to Fairfax, Va. and the George Mason campus. Did this give the Patriots a little extra motivation? It certainly didn’t hurt.

So who has the edge this year?

Early indications are UCLA (Sacramento, Calif.), Louisville (Lexington, Ky.), and Florida (New Orleans, La.). But there are also teams like Arizona (New Orleans, La.), and Stanford (Lexington, Ky) which are on the opposite end of the travel spectrum.

This is also true in regions like the West. A team like UCLA doesn’t need to leave the state of California until the Final Four, if the Bruins win their first three games. A team like Vanderbilt must travel from Nashville, Tenn. to Sacramento, Calif. and then back to East Rutherford, N.J. should the Commodores make the Sweet Sixteen.

5. Experience

Executing the aforementioned four rules cannot happen without experience. A young team running the table is a rare sight in March, but even those that do (Syracuse, 2003) had leadership.

Many teams experience growing pains during the Big Dance, as do coaches. Washington State’s Tony Bennett is making his first trip as well are all his players. Bennett learned a lot under his father, Dick, but his ability to adjust on the fly and relate that information to a group of players still in unfamiliar territory will be tested. Can the Cougars find that leadership and withstand the pressure or will they bow out early?

The same can be said with the Texas Longhorns and Kansas Jayhawks, whose rosters are full of young blood.

These teams can crumble against the more experienced Pittsburghs and Gonzagas of the tournament, making for more fade value on the younger teams as the tournament wears on.

 

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